A Chemical Transport Model Emulator for the Interactive Evaluation of Mercury Emission Reduction Scenarios

Abstract

Implementation of the Minamata Convention on Mercury requires all parties to “control, and where feasible, reduce” mercury (Hg) emissions from a convention-specified set of sources. However, the convention does not specify the extent of the measures to be adopted, which may only be analysed by decision-makers using modelled scenarios. Currently, the numerical models available to study the Hg atmospheric cycle require significant expertise and high-end hardware, with results which are generally available on a time frame of days to weeks. In this work we present HERMES, a statistical emulator built on the output of a global Chemical Transport Model (CTM) for Hg (ECHMERIT), to simulate changes in anthropogenic Hg (Hganthr) deposition fluxes in a source-receptor framework, due to perturbations to Hganthr emissions and the associated statistical significance of the changes. The HERMES emulator enables stakeholders to evaluate the implementation of different Hganthr emission scenarios in an interactive and real-time manner, simulating the application of the different Best Available Technologies. HERMES provides the scientific soundness of a full CTM numerical framework in an interactive and user-friendly spreadsheet, without the necessity for specific training or formation and is a first step towards a more comprehensive, and integrated, decision support system to aid decision-makers in the implementation of the Minamata Convention.