Model Hyetographs of Short-Term Rainfall for Wrocław in the Perspective of 2050

Abstract

One of the most important problems while modeling stormwater drainage systems is the choice of rainfall scenario, which will take into account the real rainfall distribution over time. This problem is particularly significant due to the climate change observed in recent decades, manifested, among others, in the increase in the precipitation intensities or changes in their structure. Taking into account these forecasts is essential to safely design sewer systems and their proper operation. The work aims to verify the Euler type II standard rainfall used so far to model sewage systems in Poland and to develop the forecasted form of this pattern in the perspective of 2050. Precipitation data from measurement stations in Wrocław were used as research material. The prediction model of maximum rainfall amounts allowed to determine the forecasted increase in intensities of short-term rainfall (for the occurrence frequencies recommended by Standard EN 752:2017 for the dimensioning and modeling of sewage systems). On this basis, model hyetographs forecasted for 2050 were prepared for Wrocław. Their choice—as a future rainfall load in hydrodynamic modeling—will allow one to meet the requirements for the frequency of flooding occurrence from sewer systems and their safe operation over several decades.