Modeling and Predicting Dengue Incidence in Highly Vulnerable Countries using Panel Data Approach

Abstract

The spread of dengue has become a major public health concern in recent times due to alarming climate change. Using country level panel data over the 2000–2017 period, this paper examines the effects of climate change and socio-economic variables on the incidence of dengue-borne diseases in some of the most highly vulnerable countries. Empirical analysis shows a positive association between climate change and socio-economic conditions in the advent of dengue-borne diseases. We find that climate change, as measured by temperature, is proactively contributing to the spread of dengue-borne diseases. However, redressing the contributive factor behind climate change, via better awareness through education and improved public health facilitation, can assist in managing the occurrences and spread of dengue-borne diseases.