Author:
Mahikul ,White ,Poovorawan ,Soonthornworasiri ,Sukontamarn ,Chanthavilay ,Pan-ngum ,Medley
Abstract
Diabetes mellitus (DM) is rising worldwide, exacerbated by aging populations. We estimated and predicted the diabetes burden and mortality due to undiagnosed diabetes together with screening program efficacy and reporting completeness in Thailand, in the context of demographic changes. An age and sex structured dynamic model including demographic and diagnostic processes was constructed. The model was validated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The prevalence of DM was predicted to increase from 6.5% (95% credible interval: 6.3–6.7%) in 2015 to 10.69% (10.4–11.0%) in 2035, with the largest increase (72%) among 60 years or older. Out of the total DM cases in 2015, the percentage of undiagnosed DM cases was 18.2% (17.4–18.9%), with males higher than females (p-value < 0.01). The highest group with undiagnosed DM was those aged less than 39 years old, 74.2% (73.7–74.7%). The mortality of undiagnosed DM was ten-fold greater than the mortality of those with diagnosed DM. The estimated coverage of diabetes positive screening programs was ten-fold greater for elderly compared to young. The positive screening rate among females was estimated to be significantly higher than those in males. Of the diagnoses, 87.4% (87.0–87.8%) were reported. Targeting screening programs and good reporting systems will be essential to reduce the burden of disease.
Subject
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Reference44 articles.
1. IDF Diabetes Atlas
http://www.diabetesatlas.org
2. Incidence and risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus in transitional Thailand: results from the Thai cohort study
3. Thailand Diabetic Registry cohort: Predicting death in Thai diabetic patients and causes of death;Pratipanawatr;J. Med. Assoc. Thai.,2010
Cited by
7 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献