Seasonal and Monthly Patterns, Weekly Variations, and the Holiday Effect of Outpatient Visits for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients in China

Abstract

Objective: To explore the seasonal and monthly patterns, weekly variations, and the holiday effect of outpatient visits for type 2 diabetes mellitus patients, as well as the influence of gender, age, and insurance type on variations. Methods: Data were obtained from the Shandong medical insurance database, including all outpatients in 12 cities of Shandong province in China from 2015 to 2017. The seasonal index (St) was calculated in terms of seasons, months, and weeks by the moving average method. Results: A total of 904,488 patients received outpatient services during the study period. The seasonal indices of outpatient visits by type 2 diabetes patients were higher in autumn (108.36%) and spring (102.67%), while lower in winter (89.92%) and summer (99.04%), exhibiting an obvious seasonality. Gender and age had no effect on seasonal patterns. The month impacted the seasons patterns: January to February were the lowest and December the highest months of outpatient visits, complicating the seasonal patterns. We also identified a weekly pattern of outpatient visits. In addition, the outpatient visits for type 2 diabetes mellitus patients was also strongly affected by the Spring Festival, Lantern Festival, and National Day holiday periods. The type of medical insurance had a significant impact on outpatient visits. Conclusions: The outpatient visits for type 2 diabetes mellitus patients displayed seasonal patterns that were contradictory to the variations in blood glucose fluctuations found in previous studies and was also strongly affected by the holiday effect. The type of medical insurance impacted the pattern of outpatient visits.