Macro Risk: A Versatile and Universal Strategy for Measuring the Overall Safety of Hazardous Industrial Installations in China

Abstract

In this work, macro risk is used to describe the overall safety of a group of hazards that are congeneric in a certain area, which can effectively help safety supervisors with goal setting and decision-making in China. To demonstrate this, the article proposes a calculation method to quantitatively study the macro risk of hazardous industrial installations. The method simultaneously considers the probability and consequences of accidents as the two core elements of risk, and the consequences cover losses with various dimensions. Assisted by related probability theory and binomial distribution, we analyzed historical accident statistics in detail to reveal hidden laws. To explore how to normalize the dimension of varied losses, the number of person-years was introduced as a loss equivalent to set up a method of conversion between loss of life and economic loss. The calculation method, which manifests a versatile and universal strategy of macro risk, was thus established. The value of the macro risk obtained possesses chronergy. Based on chronergy, two applications in China are further discussed, indicating this method is indeed feasible and practical for safety supervision. Specifically, it can help reasonably allocate regulatory resources by comparing macro risks of the same types of installations in various jurisdictions. In addition, it is conducive to a scientific determination of regulatory direction through the comparison of macro risks of various types of installations in the same jurisdiction.