Predictive Modelling of Reference Evapotranspiration Using Machine Learning Models Coupled with Grey Wolf Optimizer

Abstract

Mismanagement of fresh water is a primary concern that negatively impacts agricultural productivity. Judicious use of water in agriculture is possible by estimating the optimal requirement. The present practice of estimating crop water requirements is using reference evapotranspiration (ET0) values, which is considered a standard method. Hence, predicting ET0 is vital in allocating and managing available resources. In this study, different machine learning (ML) algorithms, namely random forests (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and light gradient boosting (LGB), were optimized using the naturally inspired grey wolf optimizer (GWO) viz. GWORF, GWOXGB, and GWOLGB. The daily meteorological data of 10 locations falling under humid and sub-humid regions of India for different cross-validation stages were employed, using eighteen input scenarios. Besides, different empirical models were also compared with the ML models. The hybrid ML models were found superior in accurately predicting at all the stations than the conventional and empirical models. The reduction in the root mean square error (RMSE) from 0.919 to 0.812 mm/day in the humid region and 1.253 mm/day to 1.154 mm/day in the sub-humid region was seen in the least accurate model using the hyperparameter tuning. The RF models have improved their accuracies substantially using the GWO optimizer than LGB and XGB models.