Evaluation the WRF Model with Different Land Surface Schemes: Heat Wave Event Simulations and Its Relation to Pacific Variability over Coastal Region, Karachi, Pakistan

Abstract

This study investigates the relative role of land surface schemes (LSS) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, Version 4, to simulate the heat wave events in Karachi, Pakistan during 16–23 May 2018. The efficiency of the WRF model was evaluated in forecasting heat wave events over Karachi using the three different LSS, namely NOAH, NOAH-MP, and RUC. In addition to this we have used the longwave (RRTM) and shortwave (Dudhia) in all schemes. Three simulating setups were designed with a combination of shortwave, longwave, and LSS: E1 (Dudhia, RRTM, and Noah), E2 (Dudhia, RRTM, and Noah-MP), and E3 (Dudhia, RRTM, and RUC). All setups were carried out with a finer resolution of 1 km × 1 km. Findings of current study depicted that E2 produces a more realistic simulation of daily maximum temperature T(max) at 2 m, sensible heat (SH), and latent heat (LH) because it has higher R2 and lower errors (BIAS, RMSE, MAE) compared to other schemes. Consequently, Noah-MP (LSS) accurately estimates T(max) and land surface heat fluxes (SH&LH) because uses multiple physics options for land atmosphere interaction processes. According to statistical analyses, E2 setup outperforms other setups in term of T(max) and (LH&SH) forecasting with the higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) agreement is 0.84 (0.89). This research emphasizes that the selection of LSS is of vital importance in the best simulation of T(max) and SH (LH) over Karachi. Further, it is resulted that the SH flux is taking a higher part to trigger the heat wave event intensity during May 2018 due to dense urban canopy and less vegetated area. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event played role to prolong and strengthen the heat wave period by effecting the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) through walker circulation extension.