Beyond the Transition: Long-Term Population Trends in a Disadvantaged Region of Southern Europe, 1861–2017

Author:

Salvia RosannaORCID,Salvati Luca,Quaranta GiovanniORCID

Abstract

The long-term impact of demographic transitions on the spatial distribution of human settlements was occasionally evaluated in Europe. Assuming the distinctive role of urban–rural divides, our study investigates local-scale population trends (1861–2017) in Southern Italy, a disadvantaged region of Mediterranean Europe, as a result of long-term socioeconomic transformations. A quantitative analysis of municipal-scale population data based on descriptive and exploratory multivariate statistics, mapping, inferential approaches, and regression models identified four time intervals with distinctive demographic dynamics: (i) a spatially homogeneous population growth between 1861 and 1911, (ii) a moderate population increase rebalancing a traditional divide in coastal and internal areas (1911–1951), (iii) accelerated population growth enlarging spatial divides in urban and rural districts (1951–1981), and (iv) population stability (or slight decline) leading to heterogeneous demographic patterns since the early 1980s. The first three stages reflect a prolonged transition from high fertility and mortality to high fertility and low mortality, with accelerated population growth typical of the latest stage of the first demographic transition. Outcomes of time interval (iv) reflect the early stages of the second demographic transition, with lowest-low fertility and rising life expectancy. While the first transition reflected spatially homogeneous population trends along a considerable time spam, the second transition has been associated with heterogeneous (leapfrog) demographic patterns as a result of socially mixed (and spatially) fragmented dynamics of growth and change.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Geography, Planning and Development

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3