Simulation of Development Strategies and Evaluation of Low-Carbon Development Level in Jiangsu Province under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

Abstract

Studies on regional low-carbon development are essential for reducing air pollution, protecting human life and health, and environmental sustainability. In this article, after sorting the connotations of low-carbon development, the low-carbon development evaluation indicators system was constructed, and the entropy weighting method and improved analytic hierarchy process were applied to evaluate the low-carbon development level between 2007 and 2021 about Jiangsu Province, China. Also, the system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the low-carbon development process. The research findings show the following: (1) Low-carbon development in Jiangsu Province obtained some achievement; (2) “Coordination force” played the most crucial role in low-carbon development, while “growth force” and “transformation force” performed better; (3) The simulation results showed that the economic development type would be the most beneficial in the long run; the energy conservation type would be steadily developing and improving every year; and the green transformation type had a clear drive for low-carbon development at an early stage and the impact was rapid. The novelty of this paper includes the following: (1) The dimension division of the index system is novel; (2) The measurement method is novel. The weights of indicators are determined by a combination of the entropy weighting method and improved analytic hierarchy process; (3) The low-carbon development pathways of Jiangsu Province are studied by the system dynamics model. Different strategy conditions are innovatively designed, and simulations of the scenarios are carried out.