Agricultural Water Security under Climate Change in the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

As civilization advances, water resources are increasingly being consumed for domestic, industrial, and agricultural purposes, reducing the ability to find an equilibrium of water security and growing demands. This study presents an analysis and discussion of climate change impacts on water and agricultural sectors in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and their implications for potential future water scarcity regarding food security. The analysis reveals an overall increase in annual mean temperatures, ranging from 1.4 to 5.5 °C, a decrease in precipitation between 0.10 and 0.55 mm × day−1, strengthening of aridity across the whole IP, as well as a reduction in water content in the soil, for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, respectively. These effects are generally more noticeable at lower latitudes for temperature and higher latitudes for precipitation. It also shows that the water demand is increasing in the IP, due to the increase in agricultural areas or intensive farming since water and food security are intricately connected. An increase of approximately 34% in the agricultural area was observed from 1990 to 2020. Furthermore, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values increased during this period, hinting at the increased need for water in the IP. Consequently, actions are needed to enhance food security by adopting strategies to preserve and conserve water, such as improved irrigation systems, the creation of retention basins, or the selection of new crops or varieties, more suitable to warm and dry climates, thus enhancing climate resilience in the IP.