Factors Affecting the Evolution of Technical Cooperation among “Belt and Road Initiative” Countries Based on TERGMs and ERGMs

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (B&R), was initiated by China in 2013, and it covers over 60% and 30% of the world’s population and GDP, respectively. The initiative has directed a great deal of investment in energy, transportation, and 5G. Whilst much attention has been focused on cooperation in international trade, technological cooperation in the form of patents has been largely ignored. This paper investigates the formation of technological cooperative relationships among B&R countries within a technical cooperation network. Comprehensive consideration of various factors between participating countries was undertaken, using statistical methods from social network analysis theory. The node attributes and relations between countries and the network structure were studied in a sequence of network analyses using temporal exponential random graph models (TERGMs) and static exponential random graph models (ERGMs). The main findings suggest that research ability, financial ability, technological innovation ability, technological spillover proximity, geographical proximity, and technical proximity have an impact on participation in technical cooperation between B&R countries. Research ability, technological spillover proximity, geographical proximity, and technical proximity have a positive influence on the development of cooperation. However, the financial and technological innovation ability of a country does not actively promote the development of cooperation. The entire cooperation network structure does not have a greater aggregation effect compared with a random network, and intermediary multi-path cooperation is not obvious. This paper analyzes the driving factors for technological cooperation through a systematic study of the characteristics and relationships of B&R countries, and also of the network characteristics among B&R countries. The results of our analysis show that the characteristics of technical cooperation in the B&R region provide a reference for the study of international technical cooperation.