Research on Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of the Impact of Earthquakes on Global Copper Ore Supply Based on Geographically Weighted Regression

Abstract

The large and super large copper deposits worldwide are mainly distributed in the Pacific Rim and Gondwana metallogenic domains, and they are highly coupled with the spatial location of seismically active zones. Major copper-producing countries such as Chile are located in areas with high seismic activity. Earthquakes often cause copper mines to shut down, copper prices to soar, and even mining disasters, affecting the stable supply of global copper. In order to study the impact of earthquakes on the global copper ore supply, information on resource endowments, production, and earthquake data from the past 30 years are collected. This article mainly analyzes (1) the spatial correlation between earthquakes and copper mine projects, and the spatial characteristics of earthquakes’ impact on copper mine production, using correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR); (2) the impact of sudden earthquake events on the export volume and price of copper mines from the perspective of time, using the earthquake index constructed based on the magnitude of the earthquake, the depth of the epicenter, and the distance from the copper mine. The results indicate that the regions with high spatial correlation between copper mine projects and earthquakes are mainly located along the Pacific coast of South and North Americas. Earthquakes can lead to an increase in copper prices, but they will fall significantly in the short term. The impact of earthquakes on export volume generally has a delay period of 1–2 months, resulting in a short-term decrease in export volume. This article quantitatively evaluates the impact of earthquake risk on the supply chain from both spatial and temporal dimensions, providing reference for supply chain risk monitoring, risk impact assessment, and prediction. On the basis of the research results of this article, mineral resource management departments can quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal impact of natural risks such as earthquakes on the supply chain, adjust management policies in a timely manner, and improve the level of refined management of supply chain risks.