Border Control for Infectious Respiratory Disease Pandemics: A Modelling Study for H1N1 and Four Strains of SARS-CoV-2

Author:

Lim Nigel Wei-Han1ORCID,Lim Jue Tao2ORCID,Dickens Borame Lee1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore 12 Science Drive 2, #10-01, Singapore 117549, Singapore

2. Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University Experimental Medicine Building, 59 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 636921, Singapore

Abstract

Post-pandemic economic recovery relies on border control for safe cross-border movement. Following the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate whether effective strategies generalize across diseases and variants. For four SARS-CoV-2 variants and influenza A-H1N1, we simulated 21 strategy families of varying test types and frequencies, quantifying expected transmission risk, relative to no control, by strategy family and quarantine length. We also determined minimum quarantine lengths to suppress relative risk below given thresholds. SARS-CoV-2 variants showed similar relative risk across strategy families and quarantine lengths, with at most 2 days’ between-variant difference in minimum quarantine lengths. ART-based and PCR-based strategies showed comparable effectiveness, with regular testing strategies requiring at most 9 days. For influenza A-H1N1, ART-based strategies were ineffective. Daily ART testing reduced relative risk only 9% faster than without regular testing. PCR-based strategies were moderately effective, with daily PCR (0-day delay) testing requiring 16 days for the second-most stringent threshold. Viruses with high typical viral loads and low transmission risk given low viral loads, such as SARS-CoV-2, are effectively controlled with moderate-sensitivity tests (ARTs) and modest quarantine periods. Viruses with low typical viral loads and substantial transmission risk at low viral loads, such as influenza A-H1N1, require high-sensitivity tests (PCR) and longer quarantine periods.

Funder

National University of Singapore (NUS)’s Reimagine Research Fund

NUS Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health’s Start Up Fund

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Virology,Infectious Diseases

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