Prediction of the Long-Term Potential Distribution of Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.) under Climate Change

Abstract

The poplar and willow borer, Cryptorhynchus lapathi (L.), is a severe worldwide quarantine pest that causes great economic, social, and ecological damage in Europe, North America, and Asia. CLIMEX4.0.0 was used to study the likely impact of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. lapathi based on existing (1987–2016) and predicted (2021–2040, 2041–2080, and 2081–2100) climate data. Future climate data were simulated based on global climate models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the RCP4.5 projection. The potential distribution of C. lapathi under historical climate conditions mainly includes North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Future global warming may cause a northward shift in the northern boundary of potential distribution. The total suitable area would increase by 2080–2100. Additionally, climatic suitability would change in large regions of the northern hemisphere and decrease in a small region of the southern hemisphere. The projected potential distribution will help determine the impacts of climate change and identify areas at risk of pest invasion in the future. In turn, this will help design and implement effective prevention measures for expanding pest populations, using natural enemies, microorganisms, and physical barriers in very favorable regions to impede the movement and oviposition of C. lapathi.