Revisiting the Upwelling Evolution along the Western Iberian Peninsula over the 21st Century Using Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6 Data

Abstract

Coastal upwelling is of particular importance in the western Iberian Peninsula, considering its socioeconomic impact on the region. Therefore, it is of crucial interest to evaluate how climate change, by modifying wind patterns, might influence its intensity and seasonality. Given the limited spatial extension of the area, it is essential to use high-resolution data. Thus, the weather research and forecasting model was used to dynamically downscale data from a multi-model ensemble from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, representing the latest climate projections. Two shared socioeconomic pathways, 2–4.5 and 5–8.5 scenarios, were considered. The results show that climate change will not modify the upwelling seasonality in the area, where the months from April to September represent the period of highest intensity. Conversely, this seasonality might be exacerbated throughout the 21st century, as upwelling is expected to strengthen during these months and decrease during others. Additionally, coastal upwelling shows the highest increase at the northerner locations of the western Iberian Peninsula, resulting in a homogenization of its intensity along this coast. These changes may result from the anticipated intensification and northward shift of the Azores High.