Dynamic Successive Assessment of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model and Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method

Author:

Sun Xinguo12,Peng Anbang3,Hu Suduan4,Shi Yi1,Lu Lu1,Bi Aorui1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. School of Engineering Management, Huaiyin Institute of Technology, Huai’an 223003, China

2. Jiangsu Smart Factory Engineering Research Center, Huai’an 223003, China

3. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China

4. Institution of Water and Environment Research, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China

Abstract

The water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and non-linear interactions related to society, economy, water resources, and the water environment. A comprehensive comprehension of its internal mechanisms is essential for the continual enhancement of the regional WRCC. This study concentrates on the temporal and spatial variability of the WRCC to investigate a method for dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the pressure–state–response (PSR) framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, the variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process—entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resource carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision on the water resource shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which has made the province’s water resource carrying capacity tend to become better gradually. Simultaneously, a system dynamics model (SD) for water resource carrying capacity was established based on an analysis of the model structure. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water saving, and cross-regional water transfer. Subsequently, each scenario is further categorized into high- and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes. Afterward, simulations and predictions were conducted for a total of six schemes spanning from 2023 to 2030. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of the economy and population, the efficient water conservation, and the interbasin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high speed) are the best choices for the sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.

Funder

Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science project

Jiangsu Provincial Basic Research Program

Jiangsu Province Colleges and Universities

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Water Science and Technology,Aquatic Science,Geography, Planning and Development,Biochemistry

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