Determination of Flash Flood Hazard Areas in the Likodra Watershed

Abstract

Climate change has a direct impact on flash floods, and indirectly on the environment, society, and economy, due to the rapid development and difficulty of predicting this hydrological phenomenon. The main objective of this study is to assess the potential flash flood hazard areas in the Likodra watershed (218.62 km2), one of the most vulnerable parts to flash floods in Serbia, using the flash flood potential index (FFPI) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Recurring events from 1995 to this day and the devastating impact on settlements of the analyzed area show that this territory is extremely vulnerable. The data used include hydrological statistics (maximum daily rainfall) and spatial data on watershed geographical characteristics (slope, soils, land use, vegetation, drainage density) obtained or derived from various sources (maps, satellite images, digital databases) which were integrated into the GIS environment. The results indicate a severe flash flood hazard level, with high flash flood susceptibility classes occupying 76.20%, 87.78%, and 91.73% of the area, depending on the considered criteria and weights assigned to them.