Examining the Capability of the VLF Technique for Nowcasting Solar Flares Based on Ground Measurements in Antarctica

Abstract

Measurements of Very-Low-Frequency (VLF) transmitter signals have been widely used to investigate the effects of various space weather events on the D-region ionosphere, including nowcasting solar flares. Previous studies have established a method to nowcast solar flares using VLF measurements, but only using measurements from dayside propagation paths, and there remains limited focus on day–night mixed paths, which are important for method applicability. Between March and May of 2022, the Sun erupted a total of 56 M-class and 6 X-class solar flares, all of which were well captured by our VLF receiver in Antarctica. Using these VLF measurements, we reexamine the capability of the VLF technique to nowcast solar flares by including day–night mixed propagation paths and expanding the path coverage in longitude compared to that in previous studies. The amplitude and phase maximum changes are generally positively correlated with X-ray fluxes, whereas the time delay is negatively correlated. The curve-fitting parameters that we obtain for the X-ray fluxes and VLF signal maximum changes are consistent with those in previous studies for dayside paths, even though different instruments are used, supporting the flare-nowcasting method. Moreover, the present results show that, for day–night mixed paths, the amplitude and phase maximum changes also scale linearly with the logarithm of the flare X-ray fluxes, but the level of change is notably different from that for dayside paths. The coefficients used in the flare-nowcasting method need to be updated for mixed propagation paths.