Testing a Comprehensive Volcanic Risk Assessment of Tenerife by Volcanic Hazard Simulations and Social Vulnerability Analysis

Abstract

Volcanic activity remains highly detrimental to populations, property and activities in the range of its products. In order to reduce the impact of volcanic processes and products, it is critically important to conduct comprehensive volcanic risk assessments on volcanically active areas. This study tests a volcanic risk assessment methodology based on numerical simulations of volcanic hazards and quantitative analysis of social vulnerability in the Spanish island of Tenerife, a well-known tourist destination. We first simulated the most likely volcanic hazards in the two eruptive scenarios using the Volcanic Risk Information System (VORIS) tool and then evaluated the vulnerability using a total of 19 socio-economic indicators within the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) framework by combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy method. Our results show good agreement with previous assessments. In two eruptive scenarios, the north and northwest of the island were more exposed to volcanic hazards, and the east registered the highest vulnerability. Overall, the northern municipalities showed the highest volcanic risk in two scenarios. Our test indicates that disaster risk varies greatly across the island, and that risk reduction strategies should be prioritized on the north areas. While refinements to the model will produce more accurate results, the outputs will still be beneficial to the local authorities when designing policies for volcanic risk reduction policies in Tenerife. This study tests a comprehensive volcanic risk assessment for Tenerife, but it also provides a framework that is applicable to other regions threatened by volcanic hazards.