The Role of Determinism in the Prediction of Corrosion Damage

Abstract

This paper explores the roles of empiricism and determinism in science and concludes that the intellectual exercise that we call “science” is best described as the transition from empiricism (i.e., observation) to determinism, which is the philosophy that the future can be predicted from the past based on the natural laws that are condensations of all previous scientific knowledge. This transition (i.e., “science”) is accomplished by formulating theories to explain the observations and models that are based on those theories to predict new phenomena. Thus, models are the computational arms of theories, and all models must possess a theoretical basis, but not all theories need to predict. The structure of a deterministic model is reviewed, and it is emphasized that all models must contain an input, a model engine, and an output, together with a feedback loop that permits the continual updating of the model parameters and a means of assessing predictions against new observations. This latter feature facilitates the application of the “scientific method” of cyclical prediction/assessment that continues until the model can no longer account for new observations. At that point, the model (and possibly the theory, too) has been “falsified” and must be discarded and a new theory/model constructed. In this regard, it is important to stress that no amount of successful prediction can prove a theory/model to be “correct”, because theories and models are merely the figments of our imagination as developed through imperfect senses and imperfect intellect and, hence, are invariably wrong at some level of detail. Contrariwise, a single failure of a model to predict an observation invalidates (“falsifies”) the theory/model. The impediment to model building is complexity and its impact on model building is discussed. Thus, we employ instruments such as microscopes and telescopes to extend our senses to examining smaller and larger objects, respectively, just as we now employ computers to extend our intellects as reflected in our computational prowess. The process of model building is illustrated with reference to the deterministic Coupled Environment Fracture Model (CEFM) that has proven to be highly successful in predicting crack growth rate in metals and alloys in contact with high-temperature aqueous environments of the type that exist in water-cooled nuclear power reactor primary coolant circuits.