Spatial Decision-Making under Uncertainties for Supporting the Prospection of Sites for Hybrid Renewable Energy Generation Systems

Abstract

This research aims at developing methodological tools for decision makers (DMs) to determine the locations for generating sites for hybrid renewable energy systems, considering complementarity characteristics of the corresponding sources and their seasonal availability. The decision process on new sites starts using Geographic Information Systems for modeling relevant spatial criteria. The problem solution is associated with using the Slide-OWA operator, which permits one to control the inter-criteria compensation levels by adjusting pessimism and optimism parameters. After constructing multicriteria estimates for generating sites, the general scheme of multi-objective decision-making is applied in conditions of uncertainty since these estimates are subject to significant levels of uncertainty. Such a scheme is based on the possibilistic approach, which involves the construction of payoff matrices. At this point, it is possible that some alternatives cannot be distinguished based only on the criteria considered so far, or the DM may want to evaluate the alternatives from the point of view of additional considerations. For this purpose, the framework of multi-attribute decision-making models is applied by employing methods for preference modeling in a fuzzy environment. The present work results are applied to a case study of the Minas Gerais State in Brazil. These results play a strategic role for governments and investors in their decisions while considering the ability to meet a wide range of criteria.