Accurate Forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance in Saudi Arabia: A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Predictive Models and Feature Selection Techniques

Abstract

The growing interest in solar energy stems from its potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is a crucial determinant of the productivity of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Consequently, accurate GHI forecasting is essential for efficient planning, integration, and optimization of solar PV energy systems. This study evaluates the performance of six machine learning (ML) regression models—artificial neural network (ANN), decision tree (DT), elastic net (EN), linear regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR)—in predicting GHI for a site in northern Saudi Arabia known for its high solar energy potential. Using historical data from the NASA POWER database, covering the period from 1984 to 2022, we employed advanced feature selection techniques to enhance the predictive models. The models were evaluated based on metrics such as R-squared (R2), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The DT model demonstrated the highest performance, achieving an R2 of 1.0, MSE of 0.0, RMSE of 0.0, MAPE of 0.0%, and MAE of 0.0. Conversely, the EN model showed the lowest performance with an R2 of 0.8396, MSE of 0.4389, RMSE of 0.6549, MAPE of 9.66%, and MAE of 0.5534. While forward, backward, and exhaustive search feature selection methods generally yielded limited performance improvements for most models, the SVR model experienced significant enhancement. These findings offer valuable insights for selecting optimal forecasting strategies for solar energy projects, contributing to the advancement of renewable energy integration and supporting the global transition towards sustainable energy solutions.