Being Bayesian: Discussions from the Perspectives of Stakeholders and Hydrologists

Abstract

Bayes’ Theorem is gaining acceptance in hydrology, but it is still far from standard practice to cast hydrologic analyses in a Bayesian context—especially in the realm of hydrologic practice. Three short discussions are presented to encourage more complete adoption of a Bayesian approach. The first, aimed at a stakeholder audience, seeks to explain that an informal Bayesian analysis is the default approach that we all take to any decision made under uncertainty. The second, aimed at a general hydrologist audience, seeks to establish multi-model approaches as the natural choice for Bayesian hydrologic analysis. The goal of this discussion is to provide a bridge from the stakeholder’s natural approach to a more formal, quantitative Bayesian analysis. The third discussion is targeted to a more advanced hydrologist audience, suggesting that some elements of hydrologic practice do not yet reflect a Bayesian philosophy. In particular, an example is given that puts Bayes Theory to work to identify optimal observation sets before data are collected.