Impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Changes on Carbon Stocks and Economic Implications in Calabria Using Google Earth Engine (GEE)

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems play a crucial role in global carbon cycling by sequestering carbon from the atmosphere and storing it primarily in living biomass and soil. Monitoring terrestrial carbon stocks is essential for understanding the impacts of changes in land use on carbon sequestration. This study investigates the potential of remote sensing techniques and the Google Earth Engine to map and monitor changes in the forests of Calabria (Italy) over the past two decades. Using satellite-sourced Corine land cover datasets and the InVEST model, changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and carbon concentrations are analyzed, providing insights into the carbon dynamics of the region. Furthermore, cellular automata and Markov chain techniques are used to simulate the future spatial and temporal dynamics of LULC. The results reveal notable fluctuations in LULC; specifically, settlement and bare land have expanded at the expense of forested and grassland areas. These land use and land cover changes significantly declined the overall carbon stocks in Calabria between 2000 and 2024, resulting in notable economic impacts. The region experienced periods of both decline and growth in carbon concentration, with overall losses resulting in economic impacts up to EUR 357.57 million and carbon losses equivalent to 6,558,069.68 Mg of CO 2 emissions during periods of decline. Conversely, during periods of carbon gain, the economic benefit reached EUR 41.26 million, with sequestered carbon equivalent to 756,919.47 Mg of CO 2 emissions. This research aims to highlight the critical role of satellite data in enhancing our understanding and development of comprehensive strategies for managing carbon stocks in terrestrial ecosystems.