The Use of Discriminant Analysis to Assess the Risk of Bankruptcy of Enterprises in Crisis Conditions Using the Example of the Tourism Sector in Poland

Abstract

The aim of this article is to use multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit models to assess the risk of bankruptcy of companies in the Polish tourism sector in the crisis conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A review of the literature is used to select models appropriate to analyze the risk of bankruptcy of tourism enterprises listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). The data are from half-year financial statements (the first half of 2019 and 2020, respectively). The obtained results are compared with the current values of the Altman EM-score model and selected financial ratios. An analysis allowed the estimation of the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises from the tourism sector in Poland as well as the assessment of the prognostic value of these models in the tourism sector and the risk of a collapse of this market in Poland. The article fills the research gap created by the negligible use of solvency analysis of the tourism sector and constitutes the basis for estimating the risk of collapse of the tourism sector in a crisis situation.