Nonlinear Mixed Effect Model Used in a Simulation of the Impact of Climate Change on Height Growth of Cyclobalanopsis glauca

Abstract

Localized climate is sensitive to terrain, underlying surface material, building distribution, green coverage and CO2 emissions. The Regional Climate Model (RegCM) was used to make a statistical detailed analysis of the climate change data in a specific study area to obtain fine-scale distribution of climatic elements data over time. The effects of climate change factors on height growth trends of a climate-sensitive tree species (Cyclobalanopsis glauca) were simulated based on historical climate base line data (1961–2010) and future climate change (2010–2100) predictions. Cyclobalanopsis glauca growth trends were simulated and analyzed by using a nonlinear mixed effect model (NLME). The results showed that under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, the growth promotion effect on the height growth of Cyclobalanopsis glauca will be obvious. Under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 emissions scenarios, although the inhibition intensity is not exactly the same, height growth will still be inhibited to a certain extent, which may lead to the gradual extinction of this species, affecting the composition of dominant tree species in the study area. The results indirectly reflect the impact of climate change on tree species diversity in the future.