Study Concerning the Expected Dynamics of the Wind Energy Resources in the Iberian Nearshore

Abstract

The objective of the present study is to show a comprehensive assessment of the wind resource dynamics along the Spanish coastal environment of the Iberian Peninsula. After studying the historical resources (reported at 100 m height) for the 20-year period from 1999 to 2018 by analyzing the ERA5 time series of wind speed data, the 10 locations with highest historical wind resources are considered. For these, the study of the future dynamics for the 30-year period from 2021 to 2050 under the climate change scenario RCP 4.5 is carried out. After further selection, mean and maximum values, as well as the seasonal and monthly variability of the wind power density, are obtained for six locations along the Spanish coasts. Furthermore, a performance and economic dynamics assessment is presented for four different wind turbine technologies with rated capacities ranging between 3 and 9.5 MW. A further comparison with other locations in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea is presented to provide a critical image of the Spanish wind resources dynamics in the European framework. The results indicate a noticeable gain of wind resources in various locations of the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts, with others presenting slight losses.