Renewable Energy Sources Penetration in Greece: Characteristics and Seasonal Variation of the Electricity Demand Share Covering

Abstract

The significant penetration of renewables, in the Hellenic electricity system, during the last 12 years, was based on feed-in tariff-supporting schemes, according to the compliance to European Directives. The characteristics of this penetration are presented and analyzed in this paper based on real data. Photovoltaics, wind parks, hydroelectric plants, biomass-driven plants, and cogeneration systems are examined. The cost of the feed-in tariff incentives is qualified and analyzed. Simple but effective models are proposed to describe renewable seasonal variation: (a) A simple cosine model adequately describes the seasonal performance of various renewable technologies in terms of capacity factor; (b) a smart seasonal model based on the separation between winter and summer consumption activities (both following normal distributions) adequately describes the electricity consumption profile. The predicted values of renewable shares using the proposed models were also validated with historical data. Thus, the applied models can be used to forecast renewable shares under different penetration scenarios.