Analysis of Long Time Series of Summer Surface Urban Heat Island under the Missing-Filled Satellite Data Scenario

Abstract

Surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) are mostly an urban ecological issue. There is a growing demand for the quantification of the SUHI effect, and for its optimization to mitigate the increasing possible hazards caused by SUHI. Satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) is an important indicator for quantifying SUHIs with frequent coverage. Current LST data with high spatiotemporal resolution is still lacking due to no single satellite sensor that can resolve the trade-off between spatial and temporal resolutions and this greatly limits its applications. To address this issue, we propose a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) coupling the comprehensive, flexible, spatiotemporal data fusion (CFSDAF) method to generate a high-spatiotemporal-resolution LST dataset. We then analyzed the SUHI intensity (SUHII) in Chengdu City, a typical cloudy and rainy city in China, from 2002 to 2022. Finally, we selected thirteen potential driving factors of SUHIs and analyzed the relation between these thirteen influential drivers and SUHIIs. Results show that: (1) an MGWR outperforms classic methods for downscaling LST, namely geographically weighted regression (GWR) and thermal image sharpening (TsHARP); (2) compared to classic spatiotemporal fusion methods, our method produces more accurate predicted LST images (R2, RMSE, AAD values were in the range of 0.8103 to 0.9476, 1.0601 to 1.4974, 0.8455 to 1.3380); (3) the average summer daytime SUHII increased form 2.08 °C (suburban area as 50% of the urban area) and 2.32 °C (suburban area as 100% of the urban area) in 2002 to 4.93 °C and 5.07 °C, respectively, in 2022 over Chengdu City; and (4) the anthropogenic activity drivers have a higher relative influence on SUHII than other drivers. Therefore, anthropogenic activity driving factors should be considered with CO2 emissions and land use changes for urban planning to mitigate the SUHI effect.