Backcasting Analysis of Autonomous Vehicle Implementation: A Systematic Review

Abstract

The introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) has the potential to drastically change society, planning, design, and development strategies. This study uses the PRISMA protocol to carry out a systematic literature review, focusing on the backcasting method as an analytic tool. By examining. 21 studies published between 2003 and 2024, this paper highlights the phases of backcasting: visioning, policy packaging, and appraisal, and identifies critical factors necessary for the successful integration of AVs. Visioning for future driverless cities includes high-quality urban areas, active mobility, and innovative developments. Policies and Packaging suggested a focus on restricting vehicular access, transit-oriented development, and encouraging public transportation. Appraisal reveals skepticism about the positive impacts of AVs, urging policies that limit access to urban areas and promote sustainable modes of transportation. The main contribution of this study lies in its comprehensive application of backcasting to AV implementation, offering a structured approach to envisioning future urban scenarios, formulating supportive policies, and evaluating their impact. This analysis provides a solid foundation for future research, urging us to explore the intersection between AVs, citizen participation, and environmental sustainability to achieve more efficient and sustainable cities.