Spatially Explicit Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Coastal China

Abstract

Social vulnerability assessment has been recognized as a reliable and effective measure for informing coastal hazard management. Although significant advances have been made in the study of social vulnerability for over two decades, China’s social vulnerability profiles are mainly based on administrative unit. Consequently, no detailed distribution is provided, and the capability to diagnose human risks is hindered. In this study, we established a social vulnerability index (SoVI) in 2000 and 2010 at a spatial resolution of 250 m for China’s coastal zone by combining the potential exposure index (PEI) and social resilience index (SRI). The PEI with a 250 m resolution was obtained by fitting the census data and multisource remote sensing data in random forest model. The county-level SRI was evaluated through principal component analysis based on 33 socioeconomic variables. For identifying the spatiotemporal change, we used global and local Moran’s I to map clusters of SoVI and its percent change in the decade. The results suggest the following: (1) Counties in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and eastern Guangzhou, except several small hot spots, exhibited the most vulnerability, especially in urban areas, whereas those in Hainan and southern Liaoning presented the least vulnerability. (2) Notable increases were emphasized in Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta. The spatiotemporal variation and heterogeneity in social vulnerability obtained through this analysis will provide a scientific basis to decision-makers to focus risk mitigation effort.