A New Trend in the Space–Time Distribution of Cultivated Land Occupation for Construction in China and the Impact of Population Urbanization

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has brought huge development dividends to China. At the same time, its negative effects have aroused people’s attention. For example, a large amount of cultivated land has been occupied for urban expansion and construction. Using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and the spatial Durbin model (SDM), we analyzed the spatial distribution of cultivated land occupation for construction (CLOC) and its driving factors in 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016. The results indicated that (1) the CLOC rate presented a significant spatial clustering feature, and its distribution showed a new trend of “homogenization” after the year 2012; (2) as the core driving factor, the population urbanization rate significantly promoted the growth of the CLOC rate in the local province, while showing a negative effect on that rate in the neighboring provinces; (3) in addition, behind the new trend of the CLOC rate, there was a transformation from being “investment driven” to being “population and industry driven”. Therefore, this paper suggests that the government should link each city’s construction land supply to the constantly changing trend of population migrations in China. Further, promoting the tertiary industry can be a win–win strategy for easing the tension between cultivated land and construction land.