A Study on Developing an AI-Based Water Demand Prediction and Classification Model for Gurye Intake Station

Abstract

Drought has significant impacts on both society and the environment, but it is a gradual and comprehensive process that affects a region over time. Therefore, non-structural measures are necessary to prepare and respond to the damage caused by drought in a flexible manner according to the stage of drought. In this study, an AI-based water demand prediction model was developed using deep neural network (DNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The model was trained from 2004 to 2015 and verified from 2016 to 2021. Model accuracy was evaluated using data, with the LSTM model achieving a correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.95 and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 8.38, indicating excellent performance. The probability of the random variable X falling within the interval [a,b], as described by the probability density function f(x), was calculated using the water demand data. The cumulative distribution function was used to calculate the probability of the random variable being less than or equal to a specific value. These calculations were used to establish the criteria for each stage of the crisis alert system. Decision tree (DT) and random forest (RF) models, based on AI-based classification, were used to predict water demand at the Gurye intake station. The models took into account the impact of water demand from the previous day, as well as the effects of rainfall, maximum temperature, and average temperature. Daily water demand data from the Gurye intake station and the previous day’s rainfall, maximum temperature, and average temperature data from a nearby observatory were collected from 2004 to 2021. The models were trained on data from 2004 to 2015 and validated on data from 2016 to 2021. Model accuracy was evaluated using the F1-score, with the random forest model achieving a score of 0.88, indicating excellent performance.