Machine Learning-Driven Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in the Himalayan China–Pakistan Economic Corridor Region

Abstract

The reliability of data-driven approaches in generating landslide susceptibility maps depends on data quality, analytical method selection, and sampling techniques. Selecting optimal datasets and determining the most effective analytical methods pose significant challenges. This study assesses the performance of seven machine learning classifiers in the Himalayan region of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, utilizing statistical techniques and validation metrics. Thirteen geo-environmental variables were analyzed, including topographic (8), land cover (1), hydrological (1), geological (2), and meteorological (1) factors. These variables were evaluated for multicollinearity, feature importance, and their influence on landslide incidences. Our findings indicate that Support Vector Machines and Logistic Regression were highly effective, particularly near fault zones and roads, due to their effectiveness in handling complex, non-linear terrain interactions. Conversely, Random Forest and Logistic Regression demonstrated variability in their results. Each model distinctly identified landslide susceptibility zones ranging from very low to very high risk. Significant conditioning variables such as elevation, rainfall, lithology, slope, and land use were identified, reflecting the unique geomorphological conditions of the Himalayas. Further analysis using the Variance Inflation Factor and Pearson correlation coefficient showed minimal multicollinearity among the variables. Moreover, evaluations of Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) values confirmed the strong predictive capabilities of the models, with the Random Forest Classifier performing exceptionally well, achieving an AUC of 0.96 and an F-Score of 0.86. This study shows the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics to enhance decision-making and strategy effectiveness.