Integrating Future Multi-Scenarios to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Ecological restoration is an important strategy for mitigating environmental degradation, and the effectiveness evaluation of ecological restoration is of profound significance for the scientific implementation of restoration projects. This study improved the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. It was used to simulate the land use patterns under multi-scenarios such as natural development (ND), economic priority (EP), and ecological restoration (ER) in 2030. An evaluation framework covering ecological “Restoration–Monitoring–Effectiveness” (RME) was proposed. Based on 30 m high-resolution remote-sensing data from 2000 to 2020, the land use distribution, landscape pattern changes, and ecosystem services under different scenarios were evaluated and predicted in the Yellow River Basin of Sichuan to verify the effectiveness of the evaluation framework. The results showed the following: (1) Under the ER scenario, the transfer of land use types in 2020–2030 was mainly characterized by an increase in the area of wetlands and a decrease in the area of built-up land. (2) There were obvious differences in land use and landscape patterns under different scenarios. Compared with the ND and EP scenarios, the growth of the construction rate was suppressed in the ER scenario, and the coverage of grassland and wetlands increased significantly. (3) The mean values of ecosystem services in the ER scenario were higher than those in the ND and EP scenarios. These findings clearly indicate that the RME evaluation system can accurately evaluate the ecological restoration effects under multi-scenarios in the future, providing a new perspective for ecological restoration evaluation in other regions.