Spatial Suitability Index for Sustainable Urban Development in Desert Hinterland Using a Geographical-Information-System-Based Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach

Abstract

This study uses the Aswan Governorate model in southern Upper Egypt to determine the spatial suitability of sustainable urban development in the Egyptian deserts, ensure resource sustainability, and contribute to environmentally sustainable urban and economic growth in line with Egypt’s Vision 2030. To achieve these goals, a GIS-based multicriteria decision-making (GIS-MCDM) approach was used, through an innovative approach for integrating three main indicators: the risk index, environmental sensitivity, and economic resources. These indicators were divided into twenty-four criteria, and their weight was determined according to preference through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This study serves developmental, national, and expected regional and local development efforts for developing desert regions in the Aswan Governorate, which exceed 80% of the governorate’s area and represent the future of sustainable urban development. This study found three spatial suitability categories, with the largest between 50 and 70% suitability. The first category, with suitability greater than 70%, covers 27.2% of the Aswan Governorate in the north, on both sides of the Nile. Areas with medium spatial suitability, ranging from 50% to 70%, constitute the second category, accounting for 40.3% of the Aswan Governorate, with a concentration in the central regions. The third category includes areas with low spatial suitability, at less than 50%, which make up 32.5% of the governorate.