The Food, Energy, and Water Nexus through the Lens of Electric Vehicle Adoption and Ethanol Consumption in the United States

Abstract

The US produces a large share of global biofuels but is unique in using a relatively inefficient biofuel pathway involving corn (maize) for ethanol production. The Renewable Fuel Standards that enshrine this feedstock were intended as a greenhouse gas emissions reduction measure but have had the effect of coupling the food, energy, and, to a lesser extent, water systems. This paper looks at the food–energy–water (FEW) nexus as exemplified by the growth in corn agriculture for internal combustion engine vehicle fuel and how that will likely change as vehicle electrification proceeds and accelerates. Starting with scenarios in which there is a rapid uptake in electric vehicles by 2030 and beyond, we examine the implications for the switch from liquid fuels for transportation in the United States toward electric vehicles (EVs). We find that scenarios in which EV penetration grows rapidly will clearly decrease demand for corn ethanol. Our analysis shows that, with judicious planning, the decrease in corn ethanol demand can have potential positive co-benefits. These co-benefits include reducing stressors on depleting aquifers and nutrient runoff to waterways. Substituting a small fraction of displaced industrial corn–ethanol cropland with large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity can supply a large fraction of the additional electricity needed for EVs. Finally, solar PV generation can ameliorate or even increase income and create more jobs than those lost to the decreased ethanol demand.