Study on Sustainable Operation Mechanism of Green Agricultural Supply Chain Based on Uncertainty of Output and Demand

Abstract

A future trend in agricultural development is to promote the green transformation of agriculture and realize the transformation from extensive consumption to environmentally friendly consumption. However, in the process of circulating green agricultural products, the output and demand are uncertain, and the cooperation of various entities in the supply chain is unstable, which leads to the risk of interruptions to the supply chain, and then leads to ineffective supply chain operations for green agricultural products. Therefore, under the background of double uncertainty of output and demand, combined with CVaR theory and considering the risk avoidance degree of farmers, a Stackelberg game model of a “firm + farmer” two-level green agricultural product supply chain was constructed, and the supply coordination mechanism was studied. The results show that a benefit-sharing contract can effectively coordinate the supply chain of green agricultural products under the double uncertainty of output and demand and obtain optimal greenness, agricultural input, order quantity, and optimal inventory factors under centralized decision making. The optimal production decisions of farmers and the optimal pricing decisions of companies are obtained under decentralized decision making. The benefit-sharing contract is used to coordinate the supply chain, and the overall incomes of farmers, companies, and the supply chain improved after the coordination. The research results can enrich the relevant research on coordinating green agricultural products supply chains under the uncertainty of output and demand and provide a reference for ensuring the effective and stable operation of supply chains.