Predicting the Global Extinction Risk for 6569 Species by Applying the Life Cycle Impact Assessment Method to the Impact of Future Land Use Changes

Abstract

Land use change is considered to be one of the key direct drivers of ecosystem erosion and biodiversity loss. The Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) serves as a robust tool for environmental impact assessment, featuring an advanced framework and indicators for assessing global biodiversity loss. In this research, we utilized the Species Distribution Model (SDM) to evaluate 6569 species across five taxonomic groups. We simulated habitat change and losses induced by land use changes under sustainable future scenarios from the present to 2100. This enables us to assess spatial extinction risks based on shifts in the global distribution of species. Our findings reveal a global biodiversity extinction risk of approximately 4.9 species/year, equivalent to an extinction rate of 745.9 E/MSY. Notably, higher-risk hotspots have been identified in regions such as South America, South Australia, and New Zealand. Although future sustainable scenarios involving land intensification may mitigate the biodiversity extinction rate, the objective of reaching 10 E/MSY by the end of this century remains a distant goal. By providing a more rational basis for biodiversity loss, the indicators of spatial extinction risk demonstrate the advantage of effectively reflecting regional characteristics.