Spatial Distribution of Future Demand for Space Cooling Applications and Potential of Solar Thermal Cooling Systems

Abstract

Demand for space cooling systems is growing worldwide. The main reasons are socioeconomic developments such as the growing world population and the rise of economic wealth, especially in developing countries. These developments run simultaneously with global warming effects, increasing the need for cooling. This study introduces the development of the Cooling Demand Market Index (CDMI), which indicates the demand for cooling appliances worldwide at a spatial resolution of 1 km. It is based on population density, Gross Domestic Product (GDP)/capita and Cooling Degree Days (CDD) per climate zone. The CDMI is calculated for 2020 and 2050 in four different future scenarios in accordance with the Spatial Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Further, the Solar Thermal Cooling Index (STCI) was developed to spatially estimate the worldwide potential to use solar thermal cooling systems based on solar availability and limitations due to maximum heat rejection temperature. Results of the CDMI show that the economic demand for cooling solutions is increasing, especially in developing countries, and that India will be by far the largest market by 2050. Countries such as Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo show the strongest national increases in CDMI. The STCI indicates that ammonia absorption chillers and zeolite adsorption chillers can serve the vast majority of the market thanks to their capability to run at high condenser temperatures.