Fear of COVID-19 Effect on Stock Markets: A Proposal for an Algorithmic Trading System Based on Fear

Author:

Paule-Vianez Jessica1ORCID,Orden-Cruz Carmen1ORCID,Gómez-Martínez Raúl1ORCID,Escamilla-Solano Sandra1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Business Economics Department, Rey Juan Carlos University, 28933 Madrid, Spain

Abstract

This study analyzes the fear of COVID-19 effect on European stock market returns. For this purpose, the search volumes (SV) collected by Google Trends (GT) and Wikipedia were used as proxies of fear of COVID-19. In a sample from 13 European stock markets, fear of COVID-19 was found to be associated with negative European stock returns. Our research employed this observation to propose an algorithmic trading system based on fear of COVID-19. Back-testing results show the possibility of extraordinary returns based on this system. These findings have important implications for political authorities, the mass media, and investors.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Computer Science Applications,General Business, Management and Accounting

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