Economic Analysis of Recently Announced Green Hydrogen Projects in Russia: A Multiple Case Study

Abstract

Nowadays, transitioning to hydrogen energy is considered one of the most promising ways for decoupling economic growth and increasing carbon emissions. Hydrogen demand worldwide is expected to increase in the upcoming decades. However, large-scale development of hydrogen energy still lacks economic efficiency. The economic efficiency of hydrogen production can be increased due to country-specific factors, such as energy and raw materials costs or developed infrastructure for storage and transportation. This study aims to forecast the economic parameters and competitiveness of Russian green hydrogen projects and their future impact on the global hydrogen market. This study forecasts the levelized cost of hydrogen for Russian projects from 1.2 to 11.7 USD/kg with a median value of 4.94 USD/kg. The total capacity of Russian hydrogen production projects may contribute to a slight reduction in the price of hydrogen on the global market. However, Russian hydrogen projects are still in their early stages of development with limited geographical coverage. Russian hydrogen export capacity is nearly halved as a result of sanctions. The anticipated comparative advantages and favorable global impact may be eliminated by these factors.