A New Time Series Dataset for Cyber-Threat Correlation, Regression and Neural-Network-Based Forecasting

Abstract

In the face of escalating cyber threats that have contributed significantly to global economic losses, this study presents a comprehensive dataset capturing the multifaceted nature of cyber-attacks across 225 countries over a 14-month period from October 2022 to December 2023. The dataset, comprising 77,623 rows and 18 fields, provides a detailed chronology of cyber-attacks, categorized into eight critical dimensions: spam, ransomware, local infection, exploit, malicious mail, network attack, on-demand scan, and web threat. The dataset also includes ranking data, offering a comparative view of countries’ susceptibility to different cyber threats. The results reveal significant variations in the frequency and intensity of cyber-attacks across different countries and attack types. The data were meticulously compiled using modern AI-based data acquisition techniques, ensuring a high degree of accuracy and comprehensiveness. Correlation tests against the eight types of cyber-attacks resulted in the determination that on-demand scan and local infection are highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.93. Lastly, neural-network-based forecasting of these highly correlated factors (i.e., on-demand scan and local infection) reveals a similar pattern of prediction, with an MSE and an MAPE of 1.616 and 80.13, respectively. The study’s conclusions provide critical insights into the global landscape of cyber threats, highlighting the urgent need for robust cybersecurity measures.