Assessment of Vulnerability Caused by Earthquake Disasters Based on DEA: A Case Study of County-Level Units in Chinese Mainland

Abstract

Earthquake activity can generate huge energy in a short period of time, bringing enormous risks to people’s lives and property safety. This poses a great challenge to regional sustainable development. Meanwhile, due to the complex mechanism, seismic activity is difficult to accurately predict. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore how to reduce earthquake disaster losses from the perspective of human society. In this study, we use vulnerability to reflect the relative impact of earthquake disasters on different counties. The vulnerability caused by earthquakes is calculated with the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method. We use CCR and BCC models to further decompose vulnerability into pure technology vulnerability and scale vulnerability. This study analyzes 69 earthquake disasters that occurred in the Chinese mainland from 2013 to 2020 and explores the influencing factors of pure technology vulnerability from both quantitative and qualitative perspectives. Three main conclusions are drawn. First, four factors, including the added value of the secondary industry, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, investment density of fixed assets and energy released by earthquakes, have a significant impact on the pure technical vulnerability of counties caused by earthquake disasters. Second, in the samples under consideration, the average vulnerability of the regions with an earthquake magnitude below 5.0 is higher than that of the regions with an earthquake magnitude between 5.0 and 6.0. There are deficiencies in organization, management and facilities in regions with a small earthquake risk. Third, through qualitative analysis, it is shown that the seismic function of buildings affects the vulnerability of counties facing earthquake disasters. The results of the research can provide decision makers with new insights into earthquake prevention and disaster reduction management.