Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms for Instantaneous Net Surface Shortwave Radiation Retrieval Using Remote Sensing Data

Abstract

Net surface shortwave radiation (NSSR) is one of the most important fundamental parameters in various land processes. Benefiting from its efficient nonlinear fitting ability, machine learning algorithms have a great potential in the retrieval of NSSR. However, few studies have explored the level of accuracy that machine learning algorithms can reach for different land covers on the worldwide scale and what the optimal independent variables are in the machine learning-based NSSR model. To guide the use of machine learning algorithms correctly in the retrieval of NSSR, it is necessary to give a comprehensive analysis from algorithm complexity, accuracy, and other aspects. In this study, three classic machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR), were built well to estimate instantaneous NSSR with optimal hyperparameters by elaborately selecting different independent variables, including top of atmosphere (TOA) channel spectral reflectance, geographic parameters, surface information, and atmosphere conditions. Global FLUXNET in situ measurements throughout 2014 were used to validate the accuracies of retrieved NSSR over various land cover types. The root mean square error (RMSE) is below 55 W/m2, and the distributions of error histogram are also similar. Approximately 50% of absolute error were within 25 W/m2. There was a performance difference of NSSR estimations in various surface types, and the performance of three machine learning methods in a specific surface type was also different. However, the RF method may be considered as the optimal methodology to retrieve NSSR from MODIS data, owing to its relatively better precision and concise hyperparameter-tuned process. The importance analysis of the proposed independent variables of NSSR retrieval shows that the introduction of geographic information can effectively reduce the error of NSSR retrieval, and surface information and atmosphere information are not necessary. It was also found that a combination of geographic information and blue band TOA reflectance already have a pretty good accuracy in NSSR retrieval, which implies there is a possibility to transfer our NSSR model to other satellite sensors, especially with insufficient channels. In a word, the NSSR model with machine learning algorithms would be an efficient, concise, and general method in the future.