A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Heat Island Intensity Influenced by the Substantial Urban Growth between 1990 and 2020: A Case Study of Al-Ahsa Oasis, Eastern Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Rapid urbanization has recently led to a significant propagation of heat islands. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal variation in urban heat islands (UHIs) at Al-Ahsa Oasis in Saudi Arabia, in addition to exploring the urbanization influence on UHI distribution over the last 30 years. The spatial variability in UHIs was assessed, the key determinant elements were identified, and the forms of distribution were delineated. Change detection, hot spots, and spatial autocorrelation were employed to study UHI distribution and intensity and to identify the clustering and correspondence between heat and urbanization. The results revealed a considerable increase in built-up areas from 17.15% to 45.8% of total land use/cover (LULC) from 1990 to 2020. No significant variations in UHI intensity were observed (10.4 °C in 1990 and 8.7 °C for 2020). However, a remarkable link was found between urbanization and heat, confirmed by hot spot clustering over intense urban complexes, while cold spot clustering was observed over date and palm tree areas, with 99% confidence for both. Lastly, the link between temperature and urbanization was also confirmed through spatial autocorrelation, producing Moran’s indices of 0.41 and 0.45 for 1990 and 2020, respectively, with an overall significance (p-value) of 0.001. The mechanisms applied have proven their robustness in assessing the effect of urbanization on heat island distribution and quantification.