Agent-Based Modelling of the Evolution of Hydro-Sedimentary Connectivity: The Case of Flash Floods on Arable Plateaus

Abstract

Land use and landscape structure play an important role in the functioning of flash floods on the arable plateaus of northern France. Landscape structures have changed considerably over the last decades with an increase in runoff-producing surfaces and an enlargement of the plots. This evolution results in an increase in runoff volumes accompanied by an increasingly easy diffusion of runoff on the slopes. There is therefore potentially an increasingly frequent and important spatial connectivity from the plots to the thalwegs, which can lead to the formation of flash floods. This study proposes to model this diachronic evolution of connectivity in a small agricultural basin of Seine Maritime using a multiagent system (MAS) and to develop synthetic indicators characterising these spatial links in the flow processes. The model outputs show that spatial connectivity has been steadily increasing over the past 70 years due to the enlargement of the parcel grid and the growth of runoff surfaces. For example, for the same 20 mm/h rainfall, the connectivity indicator increases from 40.99% (in 1947) to 78.33% (in 2015). This observation is observed for all levels of rainfall intensity, including the lowest. This modelling, carried out for a 116 ha basin in arable farming, can be transposed to all small agricultural basins.