Hazard Model: Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) Model for Hungary

Abstract

In this article we present a space–time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for the area of Hungary, motivated by the goal of its application in insurance risk models. High-quality recent instrumental data from the period 1996–2021 are used for model parameterization, including data from the recent nearby Zagreb and Petrinja event sequences. In the earthquake-triggering equations of our ETAS model, we replace the commonly used modified Omori law with the more recently proposed stretched exponential time response form, and a Gaussian space response function is applied with a variance add-on for epicenter error. After this model was tested against the observations, an appropriate overall fit for magnitudes M≥3.0 was found, which is sufficient for insurance applications, although the tests also show deviations at the M=2.5 threshold. Since the data used for parameterization are dominated by Croatian earthquake sequences, we also downscale the model to regional zones via parameter adjustments. In the downscaling older historical data are incorporated for a better representation of the key events within Hungary itself. Comparison of long-term large event numbers in simulated catalogues versus historical data shows that the model fit by zone is improved by the downscaling.