Wavelet Analysis Reveals Phenology Mismatch between Leaf Phenology of Temperate Forest Plants and the Siberian Roe Deer Molting under Global Warming

Abstract

Global warming is deeply influencing various ecological processes, especially regarding the phenological synchronization pattern between species, but more cases around the world are needed to reveal it. We report how the forest leaf phenology and ungulate molting respond differently to climate change, and investigate whether it will result in a potential phenology mismatch. Here, we explored how climate change might alter phenological synchronization between forest leaf phenology and Siberian roe deer (Capreolus pygargus) molting in northeast China based on a camera-trapping dataset of seven consecutive years, analyzing forest leaf phenology in combination with records of Siberian roe deer molting over the same period by means of wavelet analysis. We found that the start of the growing season of forest leaf phenology was advanced, while the end of the growing season was delayed, so that the length of the growing season was prolonged. Meanwhile, the start and the end of the molting of Siberian roe deer were both advanced in spring, but in autumn, the start of molting was delayed while the end of molting was advanced. The results of wavelet analysis also suggested the time lag of synchronization fluctuated slightly from year to year between forest leaf phenology and Siberian roe deer molting, with a potential phenology mismatch in spring, indicating the effect of global warming on SRD to forest leaf phenology. Overall, our study provides new insight into the synchronization between forest leaf phenology and ungulate molting, and demonstrates feasible approaches to data collection and analysis using camera-trapping data to explore global warming issues.